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Client study · Customer experience · Mystery shopping

What predicts customer satisfaction?

A mystery-shopping programme tracked service quality over six waves in 2025 and 2026. Which parts of a visit move together with overall satisfaction, and do those patterns hold across channels, waves and times of day?

6measurement waves, 2025–2026
741observations in the three-wave analysis
71%of the variance in overall satisfaction explained by the visit stages
30.4%of that explained variance linked to staff attitudes
8stages of the visit assessed

The programme

Repeated measurement, then analysis.

Client work, anonymised. The analysis covers three of the six waves.

My contribution

Consulting support in instrument development, data collection and management, analysis and reporting.

What the work covered

Journey stages, staff attitudes and behaviours, presentation and overall satisfaction, compared across waves and service channels. An earlier report on 102 visits found weaker execution at the initial welcome and farewell, and stronger explanation and solution discovery.

Drivers

What looked important alone, and together.

Pearson correlations first, then a multiple regression with all eight stages entered at once (741 observations, satisfaction rated 0–4). Importance is the LMG share of explained variance, with 1,000 bootstrap resamples as a robustness check.

Eight stages of the visit

Association with overall satisfaction, alone and combined

On its own: correlation with overall satisfaction (r)

Staff attitudes0.83
Explaining and answering questions0.74
Understanding the visitor0.67
Staff behaviours0.63
Closing the discovery0.63
Check-out0.58
Welcome0.58
Presentation and facilities0.29

Together: share of the model’s explained variance

Staff attitudes30.4%
Explaining and answering questions17.2%
Understanding the visitor12.6%
Staff behaviours10.0%
Closing the discovery10.6%
Check-out8.0%
Welcome9.0%
Presentation and facilities2.1%
Stages are ordered by their correlation with overall satisfaction. The combined shares add up to the variance the model explains (R² = .71).

Attitudes dominate

Staff attitudes had the strongest correlation (r = .83) and kept a large independent effect with the other stages held constant.

Overlap shows up

Staff behaviours correlated strongly (r = .63) but had no independent effect once attitudes were in the model. The two overlap.

Check-out turns negative

With the other stages held constant, check-out was negatively associated with satisfaction. This may reflect overlap with other stages, and it needs a closer look before it is read as an effect.

Priorities

Performance against importance.

Each stage is placed by its average score and by its share of the explained variance. The dashed lines are the averages across the eight stages.

Performance × importance

Where the stages sit

0%10%20%30%50%60%70%80%90%Protect and reinforceRoom to improveMonitorConsolidatedStaff attitudes: 30.4% of explained varianceStaff attitudesExplaining and answering questions: 17.2% of explained varianceExplaining and answering questionsUnderstanding the visitor: 12.6% of explained varianceUnderstanding the visitorStaff behaviours: 10.0% of explained varianceStaff behavioursClosing the discovery: 10.6% of explained varianceClosing the discoveryCheck-out: 8.0% of explained varianceCheck-outWelcome: 9.0% of explained varianceWelcomePresentation and facilities: 2.1% of explained variancePresentation and facilitiesPerformance: mean observed scoreImportance: share of explained variance

Protect and reinforce

Staff attitudes (30.4%) and explaining and answering questions (17.2%): the most important stages, performing around or above the average.

Room to improve

Understanding the visitor (12.6%): moderately important, with below-average performance.

Monitor

Welcome (9.0%) and check-out (8.0%): the lowest average scores, with a moderate share of explained variance.

Consolidated

Closing the discovery, staff behaviours and presentation and facilities (2.1%): performing well, with a smaller share of explained variance.

Positions on the performance axis are approximate. Importance is the LMG share from the combined model.

Welcome and check-out had the lowest average scores, but a moderate share of explained variance. Presentation and facilities scored well and added little, so it works as a baseline standard rather than a driver of satisfaction.

Attitudes

What staff attitudes are made of.

The composite was split into seven items and the model re-estimated. Explained variance stayed at R² = .71, so the composite was not hiding extra information.

Seven attitude items

Share of explained variance by item

Significant independent effect (p < .05)No independent effect
Effectiveness11.7%
Availability11.6%
Interest10.6%
Credibility10.0%
Proactivity9.2%
Empathy8.3%
Friendliness8.1%
Availability and effectiveness had the largest independent effects (B = 0.68 and 0.64, both p < .001). Empathy and proactivity had none once the other items were in the model, which suggests they share variance with availability and interest.

The attitude effect was driven mainly by whether staff were available and effective, more than by the softer traits.

Stability

Did the pattern hold?

Interaction tests asked whether each stage’s association with satisfaction differed by channel, wave or time of day. The evidence was selective.

Across channels

The same drivers mattered in all three channels. The welcome effect was weaker in the partner channel, with no other clear channel differences.

Across waves

Staff attitudes were the strongest predictor in every wave. The association with explaining and answering questions was weak in the first wave and stronger in the later two.

Check-out over time

The negative association at check-out in the first wave was smaller in the two later waves. Closing the discovery stayed stable throughout.

Time of day

Satisfaction tended to be lower in the afternoon and evening (a marginal result), but the drivers did not change. Explaining and answering mattered more in the evening, and closing mattered more in the afternoon.

Limits

What the analysis does not show.

Stated up front, so the drivers are read as patterns, not as levers.

  • These are associations in observed visits. The analysis does not show that improving a stage would raise satisfaction.
  • The stages overlap strongly, so one coefficient read alone, such as the negative check-out one, can mislead. The LMG shares split the overlap but do not make it causal.
  • Only three of the six waves are analysed here, so the later 2026 waves are not covered, and some of the channel, wave and time-of-day differences were marginal.

Where it sits in the method: Stage 02 · Build & validate  ·  Stage 03 · Collect the data  ·  Stage 04 · Analyse  ·  Stage 05 · Deliver

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